Consumers will pay about half [of the nation's total health care bill], the government the rest.

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America to spend 1 of every 5 dollars on health by 2015

Associated Press Feb. 22, 2006 12:00 AM

WASHINGTON - Within a decade, an aging America will spend one of every five dollars on health care, according to government analysts.

The nation's total health care bill by 2015: more than $4 trillion. Consumers will pay about half, the government the rest.

Hospital costs will rise more quickly than previously anticipated. Drug costs are expected to be lower because of a greater reliance on generics and because insurers administering the new Medicare drug benefit were able to negotiate steeper discounts than previously anticipated.

The projections, by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, are published in the journal Health Affairs.

Overall, the analysts forecast a 7.2 percent annual increase in health care costs over the coming decade. That is in line with the 7.4 percent increase in 2005.

Still, the overall economy is projected to grow at a rate of only 5.1 percent over the coming decade, which means health care will play an ever-growing role.

Overall, the most important factor in health care spending is income, the analysts said. As Americans make more money, they spend more to get healthy.