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Bin Laden offers 'truce' Experts: Message meant to convey power

Howard LaFranchi and Faye Bowers Christian Science Monitor Christian Science Monitor Jan. 20, 2006 12:00 AM

WASHINGTON - A new audiotape of Osama bin Laden is designed to counter Western intelligence speculation that the al-Qaida leader has been cornered or killed, terrorism experts say. And to raise jitters that America's most wanted is still planning terrorist attacks.

"It proves two things," said Michael Scheuer, former head of the CIA's bin Laden unit. "He's not dead. And despite all the things we say about him being isolated and alone, he can clearly dominate the international media when he wants to."

The voice of bin Laden was heard for the first time in more than a year Thursday, saying new attacks in the United States are being prepared but offering a "long-term" truce if U.S. forces withdraw from Iraq and Afghanistan.

Addressing the American public on an audiotape delivered to the Al-Jazeera television network, the al-Qaida leader notes anti-war sentiment in the United States and says that a withdrawal would allow the opposing sides in the conflicts to "enjoy security and stability."

As in the past, he also is believed to be sending a message as much to the Muslim world as to the United States.

In a brief audiotape aired Thursday on Arab TV, the speaker scoffs at claims that U.S. anti-terrorism measures are the reason no more attacks have hit the United States since Sept. 11, 2001. Instead, he says, further attacks are in preparation and "you will see them in your houses as soon as they are complete, God willing."

In a new twist, the speaker refers to rising U.S. public opinion against the war in Iraq and says, "We have no objection to responding to this with a long-term truce." In an April 2004 tape, bin Laden offered Europe a truce, a move some analysts saw as an effort to exploit a divide among Western allies over Iraq and anti-terrorist measures.

In the same way, bin Laden may be trying to take advantage of what he sees as divisions in the United States, although some analysts caution against reading more into the latest tape than a basic desire to reaffirm that he is alive and well.

"He's saying that whatever measures we've taken, they have not affected him," said Judith Yaphe, a former CIA Middle East analyst. "He's got to reassure people that he's alive and well."

Experts in South Asia, where bin Laden is assumed to remain in hiding, agree.

"There has been this long discussion in the media: Is Osama bin Laden alive, is he dead, why hasn't he spoken, et cetera? So this is probably a reaction to that," said Ahmed Rashid, author of The Taliban and a longtime observer of jihadist groups.

Of course, if the voice on the tape does turn out to be confirmed as bin Laden's, it does not necessarily prove that bin Laden is unaffected by United States and other counterterrorism measures aimed at him and other al-Qaida operatives.

"It's extremely easy for him to get a message out like this," said Scheuer, the former U.S. intelligence analyst. "It can be delivered from anywhere in the world" but still appear as though he is doing just fine. On a tape, he added, "a pup tent can be made to look like a palace."

Still, the tape holds particular messages, both to the United States, in the form of an offered "truce," and to the Muslim world, Scheuer said.

The truce offer is not unlike the overture bin Laden made to Europeans in 2004, he said. "The Madrid bombings came first in March 2004. Then he offered the truce, and then there were the London bombings," Scheuer said. "So I think we have to take him at his word here."

But then there is his message to Muslims. One goal is probably to reconfirm bin Laden's standing as a leader.

"This says, 'I am the equal of George Bush,' " Yaphe said, in the sense of a global player able to make a decision with global impact.

Other experts agree, adding that whatever al-Qaida leaders may be trying to communicate to the United States, they first and foremost are speaking to the homefront.

"Their real message is meant for consumption by their followers and potential recruits," said Brian Jenkins, a terrorism expert at the Rand Corp. "It says, Number 1, Osama bin Laden is still in charge. By his communications, by him saying he has been busy preparing operations ... his offer of a truce. All of these are an assertion of leadership."

Beyond that, Jenkins added, "It says he is in operational control," something that has been debated among analysts. "What bin Laden is saying here is not only is he the leader, but that he also runs operations."

Scheuer said the truce offer "is perfectly consonant with Islamic history."

"Muslim leaders from the Prophet to Saladin were ready to make a temporary truce with the infidels if they thought it would benefit Muslims," he said. In the tape, the speaker refers to a truce to allow a rebuilding in Iraq and Afghanistan. "What they would love, of course, is if we would just back out of Afghanistan and Iraq," Scheuer said, in part to allow the re-establishment of the Islamic caliphate to begin there.

"For the caliphate to be built, they have to have a political state from which to start," he said. "That's why al-Qaida valued the Taliban so much. Now, they view Iraq in the way they viewed Afghanistan."

Washington Post contributed to this article.